The Risk Perception Gap: Why We Fear the Unlikely

Amen Clinics
May 5, 2025

Most of us panic about rare dangers while ignoring real, everyday threats. Here’s the neuroscience why and what to do about it.

Have you ever wondered why dramatic news stories easily get you into panic mode, but warnings about the everyday habits that threaten your health don’t phase you?

This kind of mismatch is called the risk perception gap, a phenomenon that influences how our brains prioritizes fear. If there’s a news alert about contaminated vegetables, for example, people will rush to throw out all their groceries and warn their loved ones about it.

Interestingly, later that day, those same people will grab fast food, even though we all know that poor diet is linked to health issues like diabetes and heart disease. In general, we tend to overestimate the danger posed by rare events and underestimate more prevalent risks.

In this blog, we will unpack why our brains work this way, how it affects the decisions we make, and what we can do to focus on the real dangers.

Have you ever wondered why dramatic news stories easily get you into panic mode, but warnings about the everyday habits that threaten your health don’t phase you? This kind of mismatch is called the risk perception gap.

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WHAT IS THE RISK PERCEPTION GAP?

The risk perception gap is the discrepancy between how risky something actually is based on statistics or facts and how risky people think it is based on their personal beliefs, feelings, or instincts. According to research, this is a case of risk misperception where people categorize threats based on emotions rather than rationality or reason.

For instance, some people may have an intense fear of occurrences like plane crashes, even though they are very rare, yet they underestimate more common and fatal risks like car accidents or heart disease. Such misperception leads to complacency or unnecessary fear as people try to manage real-world risks.

COGNITIVE BIASES THAT DISTORT RISK PERCEPTION

Our brains often rely on mental shortcuts, also known as cognitive biases, to simplify information processing.

These biases can be useful in quick decision-making, especially when managing complex life situations in limited time. Even so, cognitive bias and fear usually work hand in hand, bypassing logical thinking in favor of past experiences or instincts.

So, what are some of the most common cognitive biases? Here are four mental shortcuts that distort thinking:

Availability Heuristic

This is an important element of the risk perception psychology that explains how we judge the probability of an event based on how easily we can recall instances or examples. In most cases, this results from the level of attention some of these events receive from the media.

For example, after hearing about a plane crash, you are more likely to believe that air travel is riskier than it actually is. You may overestimate such a risk just because that memory is still fresh in your mind.

Neutral Bias

Our brains are hardwired to focus more on negative information than positive or neutral information. Naturally, your mind is attracted to negative emotions, experiences, or events because they are usually viewed as threatening or urgent.

For instance, if you see numerous positive reviews about a product but only one negative review, you’re more likely to focus on and remember the negative review. This can influence your decisions based on fear and caution rather than rationality.

Probability Neglect

Probability neglect is the cognitive bias where emotions like excitement or fear can cloud your judgment, making you overlook the actual likelihood of an event taking place.

For instance, watching a horror movie can make you so scared that you believe something dangerous could be lurking around you. This feeling of fear can make you exaggerate the risk in your mind and overlook the reality of the matter.

Anchoring Bias

This is about how we tend to rely heavily on the first bit of information we come across, to make judgements or decisions. This piece of information is called the anchor. Anchoring bias causes your brain to cling to the first information you received and use it to judge everything that follows.

As an example, let’s say you hear that a certain purse costs $1,000. That price will stick in your mind. But later when you see a similar bag being sold for $700, it will feel like a bargain even though it’s still costly.

THE ROLE OF THE BRAIN

To understand how the brain assesses risk, let’s begin by examining the key areas and processes involved in rational and emotional thinking:

· The Amygdala

This part of the brain processes emotions, especially fear. Once the amygdala senses a potential threat, it initiates an immediate emotional response that is meant to protect you.

This usually happens even before the logical regions of your brain get time to assess the situation. This is why you may react impulsively, and in some cases, overestimate risks based on emotions rather than reason.

· The Prefrontal Cortex

This region is responsible for advanced-level thinking processes like planning, rational decision-making and impulse control. In essence, this is the part of the brain that helps in logical risk assessment. It allows you to carefully weigh facts.

That said, whenever you have strong emotions like fear, your prefrontal cortex gets overpowered by the amygdala. That results in distorted judgment, which can cause you to prioritize immediate emotional reaction instead of careful reasoning.

MEDIA AMPLIFICATION OF UNLIKELY RISKS

Media coverage plays a significant role in influencing how our brains perceive risks. Research shows that through dramatic and emotionally charged reporting, the media heavily amplifies threats that are unlikely to actualize.

Unusual events like terrorist incidents, shark attacks, or airplane crashes often grab public attention as they trigger intense emotional reactions. That can lead to distorted risk perception, whereby, as a viewer, your fears become misaligned with the actual probabilities.

Social media algorithms often highlight shocking content, which induces fear. It makes uncommon occurrences seem more frequent than they actually are. As a user, you find yourself constantly worrying about rare dangers while overlooking everyday risks.

Press Play to Find Out Why We’re Addicted to Fear

In this video, health and wellness expert and bestselling author Tana Amen shares why she stopped watching the news and how you need to take notice of what’s driving your fears.

Click below to tune in:

REAL RISKS WE OFTEN IGNORE

This gap between rare vs. real dangers often goes unnoticed, more so because of the dramatic headlines that steal the spotlight. While we’ve been conditioned to focus on the rare dangers, the risks that quietly affect our environment, physical, and mental health tend to slip under the radar.

Having a clear understanding of the brain and risk assessment will save you from unnecessary panic and help you to focus on avoiding or addressing the real dangers.

Factors like lack of exercise, poor diet, excessive alcohol, and smoking continue to pose major health risks. Similarly, chronic stress, among other untreated mental health-related issues, have been silently eroding the quality of life for many.

At the same time, people have been exposing themselves to long-term air pollution, among other invisible health hazards, oblivious to the fact that they contribute to diseases and premature death. These are the real dangers, but unfortunately, they receive far less attention.

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR BRAIN FOR RATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT

Understanding why you fear the wrong things is just the first step. Next, it’s important to focus on practical ways to restructure your thinking. Rather than relying on fear-based assumptions, you can rewire your response patterns by taking the following simple steps:

1. Embrace Cognitive Behavioral Techniques

These are tactics that will help you identify your distorted thought patterns and replace them with more rational perspectives.

For instance, if you are always assuming the worst when someone doesn’t respond to your messages right away, pause and ask yourself, “Is there real evidence that something is wrong, or am I just jumping to conclusions?” Consider alternative explanations; “Perhaps, they haven’t seen the messages yet.”

2. Practice Mindful and Grounding Exercises

If you notice that your emotions are taking over in any situation, pause and redirect your focus on your breathing, sounds, or even the physical sensations around you. These exercises will calm your nervous system, allowing you to think more clearly.

3. Improve Your Statistical Literacy

In today’s world, where there is constant media fearmongering, it’s a good idea to get familiar with basic probabilities. Researchers in Germany suggest adopting a habit of questioning any dramatic claims you come across. Always ask, “How likely is this risk?” This will allow you to focus on real concerns.

YOU HAVE MORE CONTROL THAN YOU THINK

Say no to living in a constant state of unnecessary fear. Understanding the way your brain works can help you redirect your focus to risks that matter rather than exaggerated threats. The good news? The risk perception gap isn’t permanent. You can rewire it with intention and practice.

All you have to do is begin with one small action. At the end of the day, take time to reflect on a fear you’ve always had and ask, was it about facts or just feelings? Noticing when it’s your emotions or objective data that are influencing your fears is how you are going to reshape your worldview over time.

Also, limit the amount of time you spend every day consuming content that makes you feel overwhelmed with fear. Remember, five minutes of watching doom-laden news can hijack your emotional state for days. Replace that with reading a self-help book, engaging in mindful meditation, or some other form of relaxation.

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REFERENCES

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Slovic, P., & Weber, E. U. (2002). Perception of risk posed by extreme events. Center for Hazards and Risk Research, Columbia University. https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/chrr/documents/meetings/roundtable/white_papers/slovic_wp.pdf

Slovic, P., & Peters, E. (2012). The perception gap: Recognizing and managing the risks that arise when fears do not match the evidence. Risk Analysis, 32(6), 1033–1044. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01817.x

Brown, V. J. (2014). Risk perception: It’s personal. Environmental Health Perspectives, 122(10), A276–A279. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.122-A276

Heuckmann, B., & Krüger, F. (2022). Approaching the risk perception gap: Effects of a subject matter knowledge-based intervention in a health context. Journal of Biological Education, 57(5), 1006–1021. https://doi.org/10.1080/00219266.2021.2009005

Posner, E. A., & Masur, J. (2011). Regulation, unemployment, and cost-benefit analysis. John M. Olin Program in Law and Economics Working Paper No. 571. University of Chicago Law School. https://chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1384&context=law_and_economics

Institute of Medicine (US) & National Research Council (US) Committee on the Science of Adolescence. (2011). Biobehavioral processes. In The science of adolescent risk-taking: Workshop report. National Academies Press. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK53414/